Estimation of implementation costs and potential losses.
The economics study is fundamentally focused on two objectives:
- Estimation of damages and potential losses, in the event of a volcanic eruption of Apoyeque.
- Study and design of the most appropriate methodology for loss estimation, based on the social and economic characteristics of the area analyzed.
To estimate potential losses, collaboration of specialists in volcanology is necessary to obtain information related to hazard assessment, that is, the probability an area will be affected by the volcanic eruption. The level of vulnerability of exposed elements will depend on various factors such as the intensity of the volcanic event, the location of the elements and their characteristics. Lastly, the economic value of the elements needs to be assessed, this will depend on the type of item (buildings, crops, companies...) and the most representative value in each case (market value, replacement value...).
Knowledge of possible scenarios, in the case of specific volcanic regions and eruptive styles, would allow development of a range of simulations of economic estimates of potential damage.
The importance of carrying out a cost-benefit analysis of risk mitigation actions is evident and highlights the need to enhance communication between volcanologists and local and national authorities responsible for managing crises. Translating the economic consequences of a possible volcanic eruption into into figures would facilitate the decision-making process to be faced by the relevant authorities.
